Has the US passed “peak obesity”?

October 23, 2024

Source: Emmerich, et al Centers for Disease Control and PreventionSeptember, 2024

You might have read news articles recently suggesting that the United States reached “peak obesity” in 2020, as the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported that obesity rates in 2022 declined somewhat. Many commentators immediately suggested that this could be the result of GLP-1 medications.

Not so fast!

This is a single data point, and the decline in obesity is not statistically significant. This is data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) study, which enrolled almost 6,000 participants, but this modest decline could still be statistical noise. Further, the rate of Class 3 obesity (severe, BMI >=40) iincreased 26% (from 7.7% to 9.7%) over this decade.

Further, the decline in obesity is unevenly distributed. Those with higher education have had more decline in rates of obesity. Here’s an analysis that supports the GLP-1 role in obesity decline.

Source: Burn-Murdoch, J Financial Times, October 4, 2024

Implications for employers:

• It’s nice to see the obesity rate decline slightly, although the US obesity rate remains among the highest in the world.

• Class 3 obesity (BMI >40), which is up significantly, is associated with even worse outcomes and higher medical costs.

• GLP-1 medications could play a role in lowering the overall rate of obesity, as a May, 2024 KFF survey reported that one in eight adults have taken them and one in thirteen remain on them. But this data suggests that these drugs may not be reaching those who could gain the most benefit.