“Missed” cancer diagnoses in 2020

June 5, 2023

Cancer diagnoses were way down in 2020, which will likely mean more illness and higher costs in subsequent years

Source: Romatoski, et al J Am Coll Surgeons, 2023 LINK

We know that cancer screening rates were down substantially in 2020 - and I’ve seen anecdotal reports of higher rates of diagnosis of metastatic disease over the last two years. Now, researchers have quantified just how many cases of breast, lung and colorectal cancer were likely not diagnosed in 2020.  Reporting in the Journal of the American College of Surgeons, researchers used linear regression to predict new cases of these cancers in 2020, and found that rates of diagnosis were down almost 15% for breast cancer, and about 18% for colorectal and lung cancer.

Implications for employers:

-        Screening rates are coming back, but there is still room for employers to encourage age-appropriate screening. Recent new recommendations to initiate breast cancer screening starting at age 40 years will bring more attention to screening.

-        Health plans often show preventive screening benchmarks that are their Book of Business rates. Employers can aim for (often) higher rates by using national HEDIS data or the HealthyPeople 2030 goals.

-        We may expect higher medical costs in subsequent years since many will have their cancers diagnosed at a later stage.

Instead of a long note on Friday, this week I’m spreading my posts through the week. Please let me know whether you’d rather this newsletter as one long note or 3-4 shorter notes.