COVID-19 infections are rising

September 1, 2023

I know a lot of people who have gotten COVID-19 over the last few weeks and you probably do, too.

Accurate data on COVID-19 infections is much harder to review since the end of the pandemic; many states are reporting data less frequently and few individuals who are sick get laboratory PCR tests. Many with COVID-19 likely don’t test, and home tests are not reported.

Here’s the data for COVID-19 hospitalizations, which is a better indicator of community illness than positive PCR tests:

Source: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)  August 31, 2023 LINK

And here’s the data from wastewater, which is likely the most reliable measure of COVID-19 prevalence in the community. It shows a big spike in the Midwest in early August, and that the amount of virus detected in the wastewater has also gone down slightly in the South.

Legend: Green West, Purple: Midwest, Red: South, Gold: Northeast

Source: BioBot, August 31, 2023 LINK

COVID-19 continues to mutate, and the strain that was used in the vaccinations that will be available in a few weeks (XBB.1.5) is getting rarer, and the current plurality strain is EG.5. The spike protein of EG.5 is similar to the XBB strain, so experts believe the vaccine is likely to provide good protection against this strain.

However, there are a few cases of another new viral strain, BA.2.86, which has a stunning number of spike protein mutations, which means theoretically it could have an easier time evading our existing immunity from either vaccines or infections. Happily, this version does not seem to be more transmissible or cause more severe disease in countries with good reporting, such as Denmark. Right now BA.2.86 represents less than 0.1% of infections in the US - so it’s also possible that this variant will fade out and not cause a large number of infections.

Implications for employers:

-        It’s too early to tell if there will be a large COVID-19 wave this fall and winter

-        High population vaccination rates decrease any COVID-19 wave, since there will be fewer people to infect and even those who are vaccinated and get COVID likely are infectious for a shorter time.

-        We don’t know how effective the upcoming new COVID-19 vaccine will be in preventing infections from BA.2.86. I personally intend to get the new vaccine in late September with my influenza vaccine.

-        If there is a large increase in COVID-19 infections, high quality well-fitted masks can help prevent transmission.

-        Whether or not there is a COVID-19 wave, improving indoor air quality can also prevent other respiratory infections and improve productivity.

Happy September, and hope you have a great Labor Day holiday weekend.

Thanks for reading.  You can find previous posts in the Employer Coverage archive

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